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Journal of General and Emergency Medicine

Aabstract


Research Article

Suggestions for Weather Index to Discriminate Risks of Cerebral and Myocardial Infarction

Hiroshi Morimoto

Correspondence Address :

Hiroshi Morimoto
Department of Graduate School of Environmental Sciences
Nagoya University
Japan
Tel: 81-52-804-8124
Email: hiroshim@info.human.nagoya-u.ac.jp

Received on: March 13, 2017, Accepted on: March 28, 2017, Published on: April 04, 2017

Citation: Hiroshi Morimoto (2017). Suggestions for Weather Index to Discriminate Risks of Cerebral and Myocardial Infarction

Copyright: 2017 Hiroshi Morimoto. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

  • Abstract

Abstract
Many studies have demonstrated a significant relationship between weather and the incidence of stroke and myocardial infarction. It is expected that design of strategies aimed at minimizing the risk of these diseases will include observation of weather. However, attempts to forecast these diseases from meteorological factors have not generally been successful. Cold exposure was regarded as a trigger of these diseases, but risk increases even when the temperature rises. Weather itself is complex and is difficult to treat simply as numerical data. This study was designed to convert the variability of weather into a series of numerals and to integrate weather and meteorological factors and to clarify any link between disease and weather by introducing a new index, a "weather index". We proposed a notion of a weather index and applied it to data of hospitalized patients at Nagoya City in Japan. The use of this weather index enabled us to introduce a variety of methods such as naive Bayes, which helped us to distinguish high-risk cases from low-risk cases. It also enabled us to discriminate risky patterns of weather which were known hitherto so far simply as "cold exposure". Our findings of discrimination of weather patterns for high-risk cases suggest various mechanisms leading to the onset of diseases for different patterns of weather. 
Keywords: Weather, Stroke, Heart disease, Bayes, Discrimination, Gene expression